In recent months, U.S. lawmakers have intensified efforts to regulate online prediction markets, particularly those involving natural disasters like wildfires. These platforms allow users to place bets on various outcomes, including the size, containment, and impact of wildfires. Such activities have raised significant concerns among legislators, who warn that they could incentivize arson and interfere with firefighting operations.
In March 2026, Senators John Hickenlooper and Chris Murphy introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act. This bipartisan legislation aims to prohibit wagering on government actions, military operations, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome. The bill specifically targets prediction markets that offer bets on natural disasters, including wildfires. (hickenlooper.senate.gov)
The BETS OFF Act has garnered support from various lawmakers and organizations concerned about the ethical implications of such betting activities. Critics argue that allowing bets on natural disasters could lead to serious consequences, including arson and interference with firefighting efforts. Patrick Wright, director of California’s Governor’s Wildfire and Forest Resilience Task Force, expressed concerns about the potential for abuse and the impact on public safety. (hickenlooper.senate.gov)
In response to these concerns, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been urged to enforce existing laws and prohibit trading in event contracts tied to natural disasters. Lawmakers emphasize the need for explicit regulations to address betting on such events, highlighting the potential risks to public safety and the integrity of firefighting operations. (merkley.senate.gov)
As the legislative process continues, the debate over online prediction markets and their regulation remains a critical issue, balancing the interests of the gambling industry with the imperative to protect public safety and the environment.